Lead: The US technology blog VentureBeat recently wrote that thanks to the massive involvement of Facebook and Apple, the mobile augmented reality (AR) market is expected to reach 60 billion U.S. dollars by 2021.
The following is the full text of the article:
Mark Zuckerberg's comments at Facebook's F8 Developer Conference formally launched the Mobile Augmented Reality (AR) platform battle. He said: "We want to build the camera into the first AR platform." This seemingly simple statement turns the technology of "Pokemon Go" success into Facebook, Apple, Google, Tencent, Snap, Alibaba. , Baidu, Samsung, Huawei and many other technology giants battled each other.
Apple announced ARkit for iOS this week and called it "the world's largest AR platform," thereby pushing the mobile AR war to new heights. The market they are aiming for is expected to attract more than one billion users in 2021 and generate $60 billion in revenue.
Software erodes mobile AR world
Mobile AR software or device installations Although the focus of the outside world is on the prospects of Apple's iPhone AR, Facebook has completely changed the game by launching its own mobile AR platform. However, Apple had previously secretly planned its own mobile AR software program and used ARkit for iOS to counterattack. As a result, mobile AR hardware vendors from Apple, Samsung, Huawei and other companies have attracted more than 400 million installed capacity in 2021. Facebook, Tencent, Apple, Snap and other vendors are expected to attract hundreds of millions of mobile AR software users in the next year. By 2021, it is expected to reach billions of people. The number of mobile AR software platform users may reach 4 times that of dedicated mobile AR hardware.
User base
Some people may be skeptical about these numbers. Let’s take a look at the actual data on the installed capacity and conversion rate of large manufacturers in order to fully understand this scale expansion potential.
Monthly active users of Facebook Messenger, WhatsApp, and Instagram are 1.2 billion, 1.2 billion, and 700 million, respectively, and Facebook's AR platform can take full advantage of this huge user base. Although we very much hope that these numbers can be summed up simply, in fact, there is a huge overlap between them (after all, Facebook's monthly active users cannot reach 3.1 billion). From a conservative point of view, Messenger or WhatsApp can be used as a starting point for the independent user base of the Facebook AR platform.
Facebook knows what to do when introducing new features to users. 15% of WhatsApp users use this feature 10 weeks after the status announcement. 29% of Instagram users use this feature less than one year after Stories is released. 54% of Instagram use this feature 4 years after Direct publishing.
Don't forget that Apple is also an expert in recommending new software to existing users. Nearly 86% of iPhone users installed the system after iOS 10 was released. From this point of view, ARkit's outlook seems very broad.
Tencent WeChat monthly active users reached 846 million. Since the launch of the circle of friends five years ago, about 61% of WeChat users now use WeChat to open a circle of friends each time. Although Tencent has not formally announced the AR platform yet, the company earlier this year competed with Alibaba in the mobile AR market.
Snap has a total of 300 million monthly active users. 4 years after Stories was launched, 45% have used this feature. Snap did not target the company's Lenses as a mobile AR function, but they still compete with Facebook and Apple in this area.
In addition, LINE, Kakao, Snow, Baidu and other companies also have impressive potential.
The platform that is ready to enter the mobile AR market has billions of users, and these platforms are very good at introducing new features to existing users. If these data have reference significance, the valid user data corresponding to the mobile AR software platform is very large.
difference
We have been arguing for the past two years that Apple is the most technological company that has the opportunity to promote AR development. Since the end of last year, we have integrated the iPhone AR as part of the mobile AR forecast. Similarly, we also expect Samsung, Huawei and other companies to launch their own AR smartphones (some use Google Tango, some use proprietary systems).
Since mobile phone replacement cycle is about 2.5 years, while high-end mobile phones account for about 1/3 to 2/3 of smart phone sales (depending on the manufacturer and region), the top AR mobile phones can initially receive tens of millions of installed capacity. Within a few years, it can reach hundreds of millions of installed capacity.
However, mobile AR hardware and mobile AR software are two very different markets. The number of users of the former may be much smaller than the latter in the next few years. In addition, the mobile AR software platform can seamlessly switch to new mobile AR hardware, making the mobile AR hardware user group a subset of the mobile AR software platform. (But Apple is an exception. The company's two platforms are almost identical.) Both hardware and software vendors can benefit from mobile AR, but the specifics and profitability may vary.
penetration
Mobile AR revenue Facebook's mobile AR platform and Apple's ARKit for iOS may set off waves this year, but with the expansion of the mobile AR developer community, the turning point of mobile AR software revenue may need to wait for some time. Similarly, even if Apple, Samsung or Huawei introduce new mobile AR hardware before the end of the year, the turning point of mobile AR hardware may also need to wait more than a year to arrive.
Therefore, mobile AR revenue may remain under US$10 billion throughout 2018. The turning point will occur around 2019, which will accelerate growth. By 2021, the market size may exceed 60 billion US dollars. The revenue generated by the unit derives from installed capacity, user base, and unit economic efficiency, but the specific revenue conditions may differ from people's expectations.
Mobile AR revenue not only from "Pokemon Go"
VR revenue source "Pokemon Go" is the catalyst for mobile AR last year, but many mobile AR revenues may come from other areas outside the game. More than 80% of mobile AR revenue may come from mobile network data, e-commerce sales, advertising, consumer applications (non-game), corporate/B2B sales.
You may have noticed that there is no hardware listed here. There are actually reasons for this. Before Apple, Samsung, or Huawei introduced mobile AR hardware, we could not know whether their AR handsets would shorten the handset replacement cycle, thereby stimulating sales, or boosting unit revenue through premiums. Prior to the release of reliable data for mobile AR hardware, it was the most conservative approach to hold a neutral position on hardware revenue.
Mobile AR can significantly increase mobile network data traffic, because developers will take full advantage of new features and use cloud computing to speed up operations and simplify applications. Mass data means that operators can earn a quarter of mobile AR revenue to fill the data pipeline. However, it is unclear whether this trend will create additional premium income for it, or whether it will erode each other in the existing data packages. Mobile network leaders need to uphold long-term thinking and strive to make mobile AR data revenue a profit driver instead of losing money.
For every $10 of mobile AR spending, there will be $2 from e-commerce sales (goods and services, not in-app purchases). Alibaba, Amazon, eBay, and a series of emerging startups can all sell goods in new ways. Although some may erode existing e-commerce businesses, mobile AR e-commerce may further erode the overall retail market.
For every $10 mobile AR revenue, there will be more than one US dollar for advertising expenses. Bippar is the first mobile AR advertising unicorn. New native ad formats will emerge to take full advantage of this medium and the corresponding positioning data. Due to its rich data and map platform, Google and Baidu have great opportunities in this area.
Non-gaming consumer applications, corporate/B2B, and games will each account for approximately 1/10 of the revenue in mobile AR applications. "Pokemon Go" has spawned a group of imitators. These three areas have great opportunities for established companies and startups. They can launch new applications and take advantage of various advantages of mobile AR.
Finally, location-based applications (such as theme parks), mobile web voice, and video will also use Mobile AR to generate high revenues, but on a relatively small scale.
AR develops rapidly in Asia
Mobile AR revenue share in different regions Based on our forecast, Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, etc.) can take less than half of global mobile AR revenue, and North America and Western Europe each take about one-fifth. Therefore, although virtual reality started from the United States and gradually shifted to Asia, the performance of mobile AR seems to be more balanced. Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu will join the Facebook and other companies on the international stage.
Mobile AR dominates
In the foreseeable future, mobile AR will become the dominant market for AR and virtual reality because it solves the five major consumer challenges facing AR (hero equipment, all-weather battery life, mobile connectivity, application ecosystem, and telecommunications cross-subsidy). Coupled with the support of international consumer platforms such as Facebook, the turning point of AR and virtual reality may be close at hand.
Zuckerberg is right, but the key is not just the camera. The first is mobile (software), followed by (hardware) AR platform. This is a continuous blow, which can have the effect of "unsuccessful, it is good." (books)
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