Unknowingly, half of 2016 has already passed. It may not be much of a matter of putting aside many slow-paced industries. However, in the fiercely competitive smartphone industry, it is enough to complete a round of reshuffle. This year, although the smart phone market is still buzzing with great enthusiasm, it is not difficult to see that the dividends of the smart phone industry have faded for nearly 10 years. The current buzz is nothing but competition and competition. The mobile phone industry is already strong in China. .
Where are the major mobile phone manufacturers going? What kind of innovation will smart phone industry need and whether it will usher in the second spring? Will smart cars, smart watches, VR replace the functionality of the phone? Does the current explosive AR game mean that AR is one of the outlets for the mobile phone industry?
Patent Warfare Frequent iPhone Sales Decline Market Structure Reshuffle
Before finding the answers to these questions, we may wish to trace back the development of the smartphone industry in the first half of the next year. Over the past six months, the domestic manufacturer Huawei has been able to confidently and single-minded Samsung to file a lawsuit. However, it is also a domestic manufacturer. Meizu has still been slammed by Qualcomm, and the patent has been mostly hung on top of domestic brands. The sword of Moklish is now swinging. The gap between domestic and Samsung Apple's international brands is getting smaller, but the dependence of chip makers on Qualcomm has become more and more serious, but it seems that there is no proper solution besides the payment of patent fees or rogue rogues. After all, not every mobile phone manufacturer is capable. Dozens of billions of dollars are invested in chip research and development every year.
From the perspective of the situation in the first half of the year, although the industry as a whole has few dry goods, Apple is pushing the iPhone SE to be unsatisfactory. Samsung continues to touch the river with double curved screens. ZTE is tepid and conservative. Lenovo's strategic chaos is flat and Jin Li opens. The strategy has changed but the effect has not yet been seen. OPPO/vivo continues to rely on channels and advertising. HTC has given up its struggle in the mobile phone market and turned to focus on VR. It has done a good job. Sony, Microsoft's Lumia phone has entered a dead end. Coca-Cola, IUNI, origin, and gourd phone are sadly out to become losers.
Once the strong Internet brand, with the wind blowing, the dividends retreat, who is naked at a glance. The once fascinating millet regressed gradually in a bad mood. Meizu's Daddy's capital in the Alibaba underwent deterrence, but the quality of the sales rose. But before that, Meizu mobile phones were still considered as fine-grained, but now they have become rough pipeline products. The Meizu brand has almost been overdrawn. The imaginary hammer is less and less than the beat of the industry. After the defeat of the nuts and Smartisan T2, the core character CTO Qian Chen ran away. Recently, it was reported that Luo had pledged part of the shares to Alibaba to hold Ma Yun. thigh.
Let's say 360 mobile phones, small step steady products are getting more and more refined, but it is only minor, lack of obvious innovation. However, it is not possible for LeTV to rely solely on old fans to “blow and blowâ€. Instead, it is clear that the combination of eco-products and easy-to-send recharge hardware activities has cleared a lot of inventory. The Internet’s potential energy is coming and going quickly, so that they don’t have any time for wounds.
Once Apple's Samsung China Super League, now some skyrocketing, and some trails are hard to find. It is not difficult to see that the smart phone market has three major shortcomings. One is that the chip and operating system are highly dependent on a certain manufacturer. This leads to cost control and passive product homogeneity, which causes users to experience aesthetic fatigue. The second is the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Supply exceeds demand, and many manufacturers have serious stockpiles. This year, they are certain to go out again. The third and most important point is that each individual imitates but declares innovation, and the product itself does not progress very much.
Micro-innovation, pseudo-innovation, innovation and innovation
Innovation? It seems that all but Apple are engaged in, but after the fight, we can't seem to see anything useful. In addition, Samsung's curved screen that was pushed for two years is nothing more than an embroidered pillow. It looks good, but to the user, This song screen is like a compass calculator function in a cell phone. It will only be a matter of fluctuating one or two when it comes to nothing and irrational commemorations. I am afraid that there are still misunderstandings.
Samsung first-generation curved side screen mobile phone Note edge
There is LG, a kind of big modular mobile phone, you have to plug and swap modules, it is interesting, for the time being that it is interesting, but this sacrifices the interest of aesthetics and practicality, there will be several users to Choose it? Dreary sales are enough to prove its failure. This kind of innovation is nothing but a pseudo-innovation. It is innovation and innovation.
In addition, what are the main domestic manufacturers of today? They spend their minds on the layout of invitations, H5 communication and press conference venues, and manufacturing "accidents." In short, their PR seems to be much more capable than product managers. On the product, just today you have a fast charge, tomorrow I push a Type-C without borders, the day after tomorrow he added a grab red packet function, all metal, fingerprint, HiFi, dual cameras ... This is not innovation? Yes, but it is too trivial to make a significant difference to the user experience.
However, this is always better than Apple's "doing nothing." Take a look at Apple's latest two products: the iPhone 6S and the iPhone SE, which are all too weak. A 3D touch does not have much of an egg, iPhone SE is just an old bottle of new wine, although it seems it is still so beautiful, people seem to be rushing around to buy apples, but the rational cold data tells us that its sales are declining, The growth has been slowing down, but because of the deep roots and solid accumulation that preceded it, coupled with the fact that the quality is indeed excellent and the brand premium is high enough, we can still eat for a few years, but if there is no breakthrough innovation, I am afraid that Jobs will save too. Can't it.
Eyes shift emerging markets into new favorites
Under the current background of weak innovation and fierce competition, besides the firmness of the blue plant green plant, the development of emerging markets is also a good choice. The market is saturated and the economy is weak. At present, manufacturers have already begun to transfer their positions to emerging markets such as India and Africa, and used technological “geometry†to capture the cakes of emerging markets. At present, millet, Huawei, Coolpad, Lenovo and other manufacturers have begun the layout.....
Emerging markets are just like China a few years ago. There is still a lot of room for development in the smart phone market. Users are still waiting for education, especially in Africa and India. Many people may still use the features we have already eliminated. Emerging markets will be the next growth point for the mobile phone market. However, this market will be saturated sooner or later. At that time, it will be a sea of ​​blood.
Technology-driven 5G or push the next wave of replacement
Technology is often an important factor that drives the development of the industry. With the advent of 5G technology, the smart phone industry is expected to once again see a wave of climax, as the development of 3G and 4G set off a wave of mobile Internet, allowing us to eat, drink and play on mobile phones. Even mobile office, which also indirectly aggravated the decline of the PC industry. It is worth mentioning that 5G technology will be more exciting than when 2G jumps to 4G.
At present, Ericsson, Cisco, Huawei, Samsung, Nokia and other manufacturers are in full swing in research and development. At the MWC conference in Barcelona at the beginning of the year, Ericsson also demonstrated the 5G orbit. According to reports, in the 5G network, download a high-definition The movie only takes 10 seconds. It must be a big improvement for the user experience. Although these innovations have little to do with mobile phone manufacturers, thanks to advances in communications technology, they can also harvest a new batch of users.
In addition to smartphones, the Internet of Things (IoT) will be another area of ​​greater revenue driven by 5G technology. Nowadays, many powerful companies have started IoT layout. Of course, one of the paradoxes is that the development of the Internet of Things may weaken the "presence" of smartphones. Under the complete ecosystem of things, every smart device can allow you to "satisfy," naturally, the dependence on mobile phones. It will gradually decrease. Therefore, technology will drive the development of this industry and will also cut off the lifeblood of this industry. However, no matter whether it is 5G technology or the complete ecosystem of IoT, I am afraid that it will not be mature until several years later. Therefore, the mobile phone industry There are also gaps in the development of several years. Even in the era of IoT, smart phones will not be replaced in a short time. Its worst fate is like a PC. Manufacturers without core competitiveness will take the lead, users will have new demands for new products, and the market will shrink.
Editor's Statement: The development of things is always a process of rebirth, rise, climax, ebb, and disappear, especially in the electronics industry. Take the communications products for a few years. How long did the BB machine fire? Big brother big fate geometry? Functional machines are also short-lived, and no one can escape this theorem. Even though we have many dissatisfaction with it today, we still feel that we can't leave the cell phone, but its decline must be inevitable. So seeing Apple's iPhone sales continue to decline, other mobile phone manufacturers should not hide and steal music, and even the bosses who eat meat have entered the "winter", and the younger brother of your soup can be as warm as spring?
Under such fierce competitive pressure, the major mobile phone manufacturers may not be able to calm down and devote more efforts to R&D and innovation. Therefore, the situation of this new machine in the first half of the year should not end within a short period of time. The sea will still be very lively. In the context of homogenization, the products will compete with each other in terms of process and workmanship. Of course, the user experience is also a relatively easy-going direction. In the following six months, many manufacturers will pay more attention to the camera experience, improve the quality of workmanship, and enrich the humanization. Experience, of course, Note 7 and iPhone 7 micro innovation is also a little look forward to.