China Express's Hairy Age

In 2014, China's express delivery industry has made remarkable achievements. According to data released by the State Post Bureau, from January to November last year, the country’s express delivery industry completed a total of 12.32 billion shipments, an increase of 51.8% year-on-year, and accumulated business revenue totaled 182.07 billion, an increase of 41.6% year-on-year. At the time of 2013, China Express had only 9.2 billion business transactions and revenue of 144.2 billion yuan. From these cold data, it can be seen that China Express has achieved "Great Leap Forward" in only one year and successfully surpassed the United States as the world's top express delivery country. The business volume of billions of dollars is very great, and the title of the first-rate express delivery kingdom is also pulling the wind, but the process of realizing it is not vigorous and even full of boring, sad and frightening. If the workload is large, it can still be overcome with hardships and hardships. What is even more worrying is the unhealthy competition model: A large number of disorderly competitions have caused the Chinese express delivery industry to collapse on the verge of coincidence. This adds another mess to the disorderly express industry.

In short, in 2015, China Express went into the Wu Mao era, or even 5 Mao could not earn it.

At the edge of the crash, China Express entered the Wumao era

Perhaps the light of e-commerce and Ma Yun, China's courier industry in 2014 repeatedly made the headlines on the portal, compared to Wang Fengniu, the maximum daily delivery of 100 million, becoming the industry's popular story, and Courier brother also changed the image of mediocrity, turned into a warm-hearted man most expected by college girls. According to legend, they could enter over 10,000 a month and married white-collar workers and civil servants. However, people in the industry are not satisfied with this, or that they have no intention of showing off, because only in the presence of the express delivery industry is only the surface. As mentioned earlier, China Express has made remarkable achievements in 2014, but the process is full of boring and sad.

I have a friend who is doing express delivery. He often complains that he is struggling with the peak during the peak of the 11th. Due to the surge in business volume, the electricity supplier has spoiled consumers. Many people demand 24 hours to arrive. This friend really wants to Unreasonable, such as clothes, shoes, what kind of goods need to arrive 24 hours? But it is this "excessive demand" that has caused the entire express industry to fall into a crazy rhythm. In order to meet the requirements, they need to expand the warehouse space, increase the sorting facilities, and so on, which have pushed up the daily operating costs of the express delivery industry. The most difficult thing to deal with is still a manpower problem. During the peak period of business, courier stall owners need to hire more temporary workers. They are more amateurish in terms of skills and service awareness. The potential risks are very great. The bigger trouble comes from the express delivery. Uncontrollable greed. As we all know, the express delivery industry uses piece-rate payment to pay wages, and the more you send, the higher the income. This will bring some illusion to courier brothers. They take the initiative to compress the rest time and work hard like a clockwork, but they do Often due to physical exhaustion, the delivery volume is still not satisfactory. In the peak of delivery, Courier played life-and-death speed every day. They could not wait to become a beggar. They stepped on the hot wheels between the cities. They still had a word in their mouths. Wow! Yeah, it's like stopping. The courier will be the same as a grenade explosion. Judging from the life experience of Express Brother, monthly income of 10,000 yuan is really not a good thing. Traffic accidents are not the ultimate damage. It is worth thinking deeply about sudden death on the way.

In fact, the collapse of Express Brothers is only a microcosm of the entire Chinese express industry, and the greater collapse comes from the fear that the entire industry will enter the reshuffle period. With the increase of operating costs and the increase of disorderly competition, the profit of China's express delivery industry has dropped and dropped. From the initial profit of each piece of money to less than the profit of Wu Mao, many companies will inevitably emerge in 2015. If you do not have sufficient capital strength, Chinese courier companies will inevitably face a large area of ​​collapse in the next three years. Obviously, domestic four-through-one-on-one may be able to survive, but a large number of second-tier and third-tier companies may close their doors directly. Even worse, other industries may seek acquisitions after they fail, but the Chinese courier industry has a single model and business overlap. These deadly companies have no chance of being "acquired" and are truly dead.

Invading wolf, forcing China to become an express power

China Express is worrying because their 2014 splendor is still completed by the courier's two legs and cheap electric vehicles. At the time of the largest business, the courier company's leaders must also dedicate their hearts to praising the grass-roots employees so that they can maintain the lofty spirit of “big efforts and tolerance,” and it is best to have “devotion for the Chinese express industry for life”. consciousness. Most of the business operations are like this. Everyone is looking forward to getting rid of the labor, and then chanting the working people in reverse, so as to obtain high profits under a relatively small amount of labor, but no one is mentally retarded. Everyone needs a sense of survival and well-being. When profits fall, wages gradually decline, and the words of praise fade away, there will be an irreconcilable conflict between the eulogizing group and the actual group. The author's friend who died in the middle of a double 11 or express brother was the most concentrated manifestation of this contradiction.

As mentioned above, China Express does not have a healthy development model. The most concentrated manifestation of this unhealthiness is the overwhelming and unruly competition of overdrafts. In other words, whoever can take the lead in resolving these two issues will be able to Existence:

In fact, from the perspective of the entire history of human beings, replacing machinery by machinery and even replacing labor by animals is a kind of progress. For instance, it was originally hand-pulled and later donated by donkeys. Afterwards, people just press the start button. The express delivery industry naturally also has to abide by this rule, and I believe that even sending a courier with a dice alone is better than an express courier. Of course, the modern society will not allow the blind to hit the road anymore. The more reliable means comes from the delivery of drones. This is also the most important technical direction for the Chinese express delivery industry. In fact, as early as last year, Shunfeng Express had been reported to have drone deliveries, but it was only at the experimental stage. Due to the complexity of technology, cost, and geographical environment in China, this experiment failed to succeed. Nothing below.

In contrast, the courier giants in the international arena have to go deeper. Amazon.com is making great efforts to develop the drone delivery business, and has achieved certain strategic success. The robots in their warehouses are already carrying out simple delivery. Work not only can finish boring work for the natural person, but also shorten the average processing of the order. The maximum reduction is shortened from 1 hour to 13 minutes. More importantly, the robot will never violently sort, nor will it record the user's Information and resell them. In fact, from a technical point of view, existing robots can already meet the needs of some express delivery industries. After all, orders for cargo distribution or transportation are simpler than industrial robots and assembly robots, but the current cost is still relatively high. Amazon The realization of its own strategy even cost US$800 million to acquire a robot manufacturing company. It will be difficult to pay back in the short term, but in the long run, the transaction is absolutely worth the price. What is lacking in China's express delivery companies is this kind of forward-looking and long-term development of strategic ambitions. This is why after the three foreign express delivery licenses were obtained, the author vaguely smelled a “wolf is coming”.

In addition, the reason why China Express is so easy to enter the disorderly competition and the price of the game is one of the most important reasons is that services tend to be homogenized. This is exactly the same with group purchase, mobile phone and telecommunication services. In fact, homogenous competition has always been an important attribute of Chinese businesses. Once a profitable model is discovered, thousands of imitators will emerge in just one second. In fact, China's express delivery industry is bound to begin a bloody reshuffle in 2015, and the most easily retained are those with strong capital, and some small businesses need to use more brains and differentiate themselves than large companies in order to survive. Service routes, such as subdivided scene delivery, express delivery to rural areas, express delivery to the west, and so on. In addition, the protagonist of this article also has great potential for express brother, merchants can fully rely on the image of today's courier brother burst red star-style packaging, imagine, if Beckham to the girlfriend to send the courier, she would be too late to abandon it? I think at that time, Courier Brothers is not Ma Zai, and may directly become Ma Yun ... Of course, this is only a few hit-and-pop ideas, China needs more systematic innovation, such as the city's e-commerce system, large logistics system, city courier Value-added services and so on.

In short, in the face of the industry reshuffle of hurricanes and foreign wolf invasion, China Express can not only meet the fifty-mao era, how to get a five bar, this is not a face problem, but stomach problems.