The wireless carrier infrastructure market continued to decline in 2010
According to iSuppli, in the face of money-constrained consumers and still not out of recession, operators remain cautious, so in 2010, global wireless operators' capital expenditure will decline for the second consecutive year.
This year's overall capital expenditure on wireless communications will reach US $ 120.6 billion, a decrease of 1.8% from US $ 122.8 billion in 2009. In 2009, it was 8.6% lower than 2008's 134.3 billion US dollars.
Of the three major components of overall capital expenditures, capital expenditures for software and network maintenance will account for the largest proportion, and are expected to reach US $ 60.9 billion in 2010. Capital expenditures for wireless infrastructure equipment accounted for the second largest, this year will reach 36.7 billion US dollars. The third largest area is capital expenditures beyond basic equipment, such as cable, factory and on-site procurement, which will exceed US $ 23 billion.
Although overall capital expenditures are less optimistic this year, operators will continue to invest selectively in key areas that can boost operating revenue growth—specifically, data and video services to offset the decline in voice business operating revenue. Starting next year, overall capital expenditure will gradually resume growth, reaching US $ 126.9 billion in 2013.
Strategies to maintain cash flow: 4G and older wireless technologies
iSuppli believes that in the next two years, all large wireless operators in developed countries will be extremely cautious in investing.
In view of the still uncertain global macroeconomic situation, iSuppli expects wireless users in the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea to reduce spending on wireless voice and data communications, which will adversely affect the operating income of operators.
Faced with this situation, operators will reduce investment in technology upgrades. Operators will not actively deploy newer 4G technologies, but will focus on promoting the currently dominant 3G / 3.5G technologies to improve the data transmission speed of their cellular networks. 4G technology is used to support high-speed mobile wireless access.
iSuppli believes that 4G technology will not be deployed on a large scale until 2011, and it will wait for operators to recoup their investment in 3G. LTE and WiMAX are considered as 4G technologies.
Unlike the strategy adopted in developed countries, operators in developing countries will basically continue to expand the coverage of 2.5G networks in order to provide higher data transmission speeds, while not requiring a large investment in the construction of new infrastructure. For most of these operators, the 2.5G network is relatively mature and is the most economical option to expand wireless coverage to a larger population.
However, some developing countries have begun deploying 3G, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brazil. In China, Chinese operators actively deployed 3G networks in 2009 and will continue in 2010.
Operators consider using femto base stations to ease network congestion
When operators decided to postpone the deployment of 4G technology, more and more wireless users began to accept smart phones, which caused network congestion and overload problems for many operators in developed countries.
To this end, operators are evaluating different solutions to reduce bandwidth burden, and strive to alleviate congestion problems in the wireless access and backhaul links of their networks.
iSuppli believes that the femtocell base station is a feasible solution for solving the practical problems currently faced by operators. To this end, iSuppli predicts that 3G femtocell base stations will be deployed in the broad market in 2010.
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