Transformer market may stabilize after 3 years

With the rapid development of China's economy, power supply construction has seen explosive growth since 2003. The annual growth rate of more than 15% has greatly eased the tight power supply situation.

As of the end of 2007, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 713 million kilowatts. According to the current scale of construction and the changes in the power structure, we expect that the newly installed capacity will gradually drop to 95 million, 90 million, and 80 million kilowatts in 2009-11. It is expected that China's electricity will reach a balance between supply and demand in 2011. Taking into account the shutdown of small thermal power, the newly installed capacity will be maintained at 70 million kilowatts.

As China's power grid construction has long been lagging behind power supply construction, it has aggravated the situation of tight power supply. At the same time, because the main grid is relatively weak and the grid structure is irrational, it also limits the ability to allocate power supply resources.

In order to comprehensively solve the problem of lagging grid construction, the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid have all raised their investment quotas for the power grid. They plan to invest 1.5 trillion yuan in the construction of power grids during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. The construction of the main power grid has become the top priority for grid investment. It is expected that during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, China will add a substation capacity of 220KV and above to 1.23 billion kVA.

After 2011 will tend to be stable

The report predicts that in 2008-11, the demand for 220KV and above transformers in China will reach 254 million, 305 million, 336 million, and 352 million kVA, respectively, an increase of 30%, 20%, 10%, and 5% respectively. After 2011, as the cumulative load-carrying ratio and the new capacity-to-load ratio increase, the demand for 220KV and above transformers will remain at 352 million. Based on this, after 2011, the new capacity-to-load ratio of 4 or more is clearly still partially filling historical debt. By 2015, the accumulated load-bearing ratio of 220KV or more in China will reach 2.74. Trends, filling historical debts will be a smooth process.

Through the above analysis, it is expected that the construction of transmission grids of 220KV and above will continue to grow at high speed in 2008-11, and the problem of historical debts in the transmission grid will be basically solved in 2012. With the decrease of new installed capacity, the demand for domestic 220KV and above transformers will become saturated after 2012. Considering the problem of upgrading products, it is expected that the average annual demand for transformers of 220KV and above will be maintained at 350 million kVA. .

Overseas cake is not tempting

In terms of foreign markets, globally (except China), the electricity consumption in 2015 will reach 16.9 million terawatt hours. If the annual use of fractional numbers is 5000 hours, the cumulative installed capacity is 3.374 billion kilowatts, which will require new years to come. The installed capacity is 81 million to 80 million kilowatts. The cumulative loading ratio for Japan at 200KV and above is 1.13, France is 1.96, and Russia is 1.5. Considering the improvement of the voltage level and the optimization of the grid structure, suppose that the overseas market's reasonable new 200KV and above load-to-load ratio is 1.8-2.2. At the same time, considering the upgrading of transformers, the average annual demand for transformers of 220KV and above in foreign markets is about 2.6. Billion - 320 million kVA. The developing countries discarded the Chinese factor. In 2010, the demand for transformers of 220KV and above in developing countries was about 72 million kVA, which increased to 85 million kVA in 2015.

On the whole, at present and in the future, China will be the largest market for transformers of 220KV and above. By 2010, global transformer market of 220KV and above, China's demand accounted for about 59%, developing countries (except China) accounted for 13%, and other countries about 28%. Therefore, when China's demand is saturated, overseas markets, especially developing markets, may not be as promising as they are expected to be.