Abstract: In 2008, the global LED market was about 6.9 billion US dollars, of which the average annual growth rate of high-brightness and ultra-high-brightness LED market will reach 20%, and the market size will reach 1.6 billion US dollars. With the rapid promotion of the mobile phone application market, the average annual growth rate of the high-brightness LED market has reached 46% in the past 10 years.
I. Introduction to the LED industry
1. White LED becomes the focus of future growth
As a new lighting technology, LED is a light-emitting device that uses a semiconductor chip as a light-emitting material to directly convert electrical energy into light energy. Since the birth of the world's first semiconductor light-emitting diode in the 1960s, LED lighting has been hailed as the third revolution in human lighting due to its long life, energy saving, rich color, safety and environmental protection.
(1) Upstream: The products are mainly divided into single chip and epichip, and the single chip is used as the substrate of the material.
(2) Midstream: The main product is grain. According to different LED requirements, the epitaxial chip diffusion, metal evaporation, and then the mask on the epichip, etching, heat treatment, to make the grain electrode, and finally after the die cutting, testing, inspection.
(3) Downstream: die package. The die is bonded to the lead frame and the die is packaged into different LEDs depending on the application.
Table 1 LED types and applications
Figure 2 Product application of high brightness white LED
Future growth focus - white LED. High-brightness white LED products are most diversified and grow strong, and their demand is growing at a large rate every year (Figure 2). In the future, mobile phone backlights, LCD backlights, general lighting and automotive light sources are the most promising.
2. Backlight application
LED as the backlight of LCD, compared with the traditional backlight technology, in addition to the advantages of power saving, there are many unique advantages: 1) LED life can be up to 100,000 hours, greatly extending the life of LCD TV 2) LED backlight has better color gamut, good color reproduction; 3) Brightness adjustment range is large; 4) LED backlight can flexibly adjust the illumination frequency, and the frequency is much higher than CCFL, so it can perfectly display the motion picture; ) Red, green and blue 3 colors independently, easy to manage color in real time; 6) Adjustable backlight white balance while ensuring overall contrast without sacrificing brightness and contrast; 7) Excellent brightness uniformity required The auxiliary optical components are simpler and the brightness of the screen is more uniform. 8) The design of the power supply module is quite simple. It is safe to use a low voltage power supply of 5 to 24V. 9) The LED light source does not have any radiation, and there is no mercury or the like. Toxic substances, green and environmentally friendly. 10) The seismic performance is excellent.
The above data was tested before August 2007. As the LED luminous efficiency and brightness increase, the number of backlight LEDs decreases, and the current power is already lower than the CCFL backlight. The latest data shows that LED-backlit notebooks consume 40% less power than CCFL-backlit notebooks, extending battery life by 1-1.5 times. Since the number of normal charge and discharge cycles of the battery is 500, such an increase in the endurance time also reduces the number of charge and discharge cycles of the battery, which is equivalent to prolonging the battery life.
In terms of thickness, the thickness of LED backlight notebooks has also gained advantages. For example, a 13.3-inch white LED notebook panel can be 40% thinner and 20% lighter. 2. Affected by the sales strategy of downstream notebook manufacturers In 2008, LED popularity did not meet expectations. LED is superior to CCFL in all aspects, but its price is higher than the latter. RGB LED backlights are $50 to $80 more expensive than CCFL-backlit notebook panels; white LEDs cost less than $25 more than CCFLs, but white LEDs have a discount on CCFL advantages. There are already a number of LED backlit notebooks on the market. The industry has expected LED backlights to be popular in NB in ​​2008, but since the downstream manufacturers still use LED applications as high-end models in 2008, their prices and ordinary notebooks. The difference is far higher than the increased cost of using LED backlights.
Therefore, the sales strategy of downstream notebooks directly affects the penetration of LEDs in notebooks, which was about 3% in 2007 and 6%-8% in 2008. However, this situation is expected to improve after 2009. The reason is that LED backlights continue to mature and downstream notebook manufacturers have begun to change sales strategies.
Notebook vendor sales strategy changed significantly in 2009. To promote LED backlighting, Dell said its 15-inch LED-backlit LCD screen is 43% more energy efficient than traditional CCFL backlights at maximum brightness. At the same time, it is announced that in the next 12 months, Dell's new notebook will be replaced with LED-backlit LCD screens. In addition to the business series, Dell expects 80% of its global notebook shipments to achieve standard LED backlighting by the end of 2009, reaching 100% in 2010.
This move by Dell shows that LED is no longer a concept model or a fashion model, but as a standard configuration, its price strategy will no longer adopt a high-end strategy. As one of the leading players in the industry, Dell is bound to follow up. Therefore, the penetration rate of LEDs in notebooks in 2009 is expected to reach more than 20%. In 2007, global notebook shipments reached 109 million units, up 15% in 2008, and 10% in 2009. In 2009, notebook shipments reached 140 million units, of which 28 million will use LEDs. The demand for LEDs is 7.03 billion. .
LCD TVs and desktop monitors help LCD TVs for large-size panel applications of LEDs. According to iSupply's statistics at the end of 2007, shipments of LED backlight LCD TVs in 2007 were 1 million units, while LCD TVs shipped in 2007. The volume is 78 million units and the penetration rate is less than 2%. With the advancement of LED technology and the decline in cost, it is expected that the penetration rate will continue to increase in the future. Displaybank recently predicted that LCD TV penetration will reach 6.4% in 2010, and shipments in 2011 and 2012 are expected to reach 25 million and 50 million units. We believe Displaybank's estimate of 2010 penetration is too conservative, and we believe penetration is 9%.
Although the requirements for LED replacement are not as urgent as those for notebook computers, the more perfect picture quality experience brought by LEDs will be a big temptation for consumers. As the cost of LEDs continues to decrease, its penetration rate will inevitably Gradually improve.
Second, the world LED market analysis
In 2008, the global LED market was about 6.9 billion US dollars, of which the high-brightness and ultra-high brightness LED market will grow at an average annual rate of about 20%, with a market size of 1.6 billion US dollars. With the rapid promotion of the mobile phone application market, the average annual growth rate of the high-brightness LED market has reached 46% in the past 10 years.
Figure 3: Global LED market growth trend (billions of US dollars)
Emerging application markets such as general lighting, automotive headlamps, and large-screen LCD backlights will be the new drivers for the growth of the high-brightness LED market, and the high-brightness LED market will continue to double in the next five years. The future LED market for landscape lighting and general lighting is the fastest growing. The landscape lighting LED market will grow at an annual rate of 50%, and the market share will increase from 2% in 2003 to 8% in 2008. In 2004, General Lighting LED sales were US$94 million, and will grow to US$875 million by 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 52.3%. At that time, LED will occupy an important market in the global market of US$12 billion to US$14 billion. position.
Figure 4: High-brightness LED compound growth rate for the next 5 years
LED backlight module is also a huge market for LED applications in the future. As the price of LED backlight module continues to decline, its price will gradually fall into an acceptable range, and eventually a significant replacement for CCFL.
Table 5: Cost Comparison of 12-inch NB Backlight Modules with Different Light Sources
Table 6: TFT Panel Quotes for Various Backlight Modules
Figure 5 LED backlight module needs huge future
The major LED suppliers and regions in the world are Japan, Taiwan, the United States and Europe. Non-Japan and Asia such as Taiwan, China and South Korea are the fastest growing regions in the global LED industry.
In the United States, about one-third of primary energy is used for power generation, and 20% of electricity is used for lighting. Assume that the current market share of incandescent, fluorescent and high-pressure gas discharge lamps in the lighting market is 42%, 41%, respectively. At 17%, the total lighting efficiency is about 45-65 lm/W. If the luminous efficiency of LED lighting can reach the target of 150-200lm/W, and all replace traditional lighting, the total lighting efficiency can be more than doubled, and the power consumption for lighting in the United States will be reduced by half, and the total power consumption will be reduced. More than one tenth. It is estimated that by 2025, the annual electricity consumption in the United States is about 5.2 trillion kWh, and the retail price per kWh is 0.07 US dollars. Consumers pay about 350 billion US dollars per year, so using LED lighting can save 525 billion kWh per year. Can save $35 billion. For the world, this number will expand three to four times. The average annual power generation of a nuclear power plant in the United States is about 72 billion kWh (according to 1 GW of power generation per unit, the annual power generation time is 365 24 24 hours, and the utilization rate of power generation is 87%). Saving 525 billion kW means saving about Annual power generation of 70 nuclear power plants.
Table 7 Comparison of three lighting technologies: incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp and LED
Seoul Semiconductor Co. Ltd. successfully developed and launched the world's brightest P4 LED lighting technology. The P4 requires only a single chip, emitting 240 lm (lumen) of brightness below 1A (1 amp), creating the industry's most efficient brightness of 100lm/W350mA, compared to 70lm/W for conventional fluorescent lamps and 15 lm for conventional bulbs. W is brighter and more cost effective. The traditional LED lighting technology has to combine several chips to emit more than 100lm of brightness, and the P4 developed by Seoul Semiconductor is the only one in the world that can emit 240lm through a single chip. The patent and assembly technology of Seoul Semiconductor enables the P4 to provide the highest illuminance and excellent reliability, helping to cope with many obstacles related to thermal processing. P4's unique design can be widely used in the lighting industry, including: automotive, mobile phone flash, flashlight, LCD TV screen backlight, projector, home appliances, traffic lights, street lights, construction and decoration Lamps and general lighting fixtures, etc.
Figure 6 LED performance speed
Third, China LED application market analysis
Application 1: The display is the main application market for LEDs, and the full-color display is strong.
China's LED display market started earlier, and a number of LED display manufacturers with strong strength appeared on the market. At present, LED displays have been widely used in stations, banks, securities, and hospitals. In terms of LED demand, the LED display ranks second only to the LED indicator, accounting for 23.1% of the total LED sales. Since the LEDs used for the display are higher in brightness and life than the LED indicators, the average price is above the indicator LEDs, which leads to a market size of 3.24 billion yuan for the display LEDs. The main application of LED is often based on its unique advantages. LED full-color display is widely used in sports venues, municipal concerts, stations, airports and other places.
Application 2: The small-size backlight market is slowing down, and the medium and large size will become a new focus.
LED has long been used in the small-size LCD panel backlight market dominated by mobile phones. The continuous growth of mobile phone production has driven the rapid development of the backlight market. In particular, the emergence of color-screen mobile phones in 2003 is driving the rapid development of the white LED market. However, with the steady growth of mobile phone production and the increase in technology, the number of LEDs used in mobile phone LCD backlights has decreased, which has led to a slowdown in LED usage in mobile phone backlights. The slowdown in the volume growth rate and the continuous decline in the average price have led to a weak growth in the small-size backlight market. At the same time, the medium and large-size backlight market has become the new favorite of manufacturers.
Application 3: The automotive lamp market has great potential, but the market is difficult to start in the short term.
LED as a car headlight mainly benefits from low power consumption, long life and fast speed. Statistics show that vehicles with LED brake lights will reduce the braking distance by 7 feet compared to vehicles without LED brake lights when the car is driving at 100 kilometers per hour. At present, LED has been gradually applied to the third brake light of the car. Although LED is currently facing a low wattage per unit and related policy restrictions, it will take some time to enter the taillights and headlamps market, but as the cost performance ratio decreases and the luminous efficiency increases, the final LED will gradually realize. From the inside of the car, the rear to the front of the transfer, and ultimately occupy the entire car lights market often rely on the huge capacity of the car, LED lamp market is facing great development potential.
Application 4: The interior decoration lamp market has gradually started, and the traffic light market has entered a period of steady growth.
The interior decorative lighting market is another emerging city in which LEDs are often controlled by current. LEDs can vary hundreds or even thousands of colors. In the era of individualization at this stage, the diversification of LED colors contributes to the development of the LED decorative lamp market. LEDs have begun to be made into small decorative lights, and decorative curtain walls are used in hotels and living rooms. After years of replacement work, the work of replacing the traditional traffic lights with LED traffic lights in major cities across the country is nearing completion. However, with the completion of the replacement work, the LED traffic light market will not maintain rapid growth.
Application 5: The landscape lighting market is developing rapidly.
The landscape lighting market is mainly based on decorative lighting in public places such as streets and squares. The driving force is mainly from the government. Affected by the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and the 2010 Shanghai World Expo, Beijing, Shanghai and other venues have accelerated the pace of landscape lighting. Due to the low power consumption of LEDs, it has strong market competitiveness in the landscape lighting market with huge power consumption. At present, LED has been increasingly applied to the landscape lighting market.
In addition, the main role of the Olympic Games and the World Expo is far less than the growth of the landscape lighting market, and more importantly its role model. Other cities seeing the outstanding performance of LEDs in landscape lighting will reduce the use of LED landscape lighting and accelerate the use of LE in landscape lighting. LEDs will expand rapidly from Tier 1 cities to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.
Application 6: The general lighting market is long and has a long way to go.
For the entry into the general lighting market, in addition to problems such as low luminous efficiency, poor heat dissipation, and high cost, power white LEDs will also face the integration of optical, mechanical and electronic control, and the development of general standards for LED lighting products. . It takes a long time to solve the above problems.
Commercial sites such as hotels, business halls, and high-end commercial office buildings are less sensitive to price. At the same time, these high-end places pay more attention to the status of taste and honor, and have greater interest in emerging products. These have lowered the threshold for LED lighting to enter. LED lighting will take the lead in entering the commercial market and gradually expand into the civilian market.
Fourth, China LED market manufacturers analysis
China's LED industry started in the 1970s, and the high-brightness LED industry developed rapidly in the late 1990s. In 2003, the Ministry of Science and Technology launched the national semiconductor lighting project, and at the same time promoted the construction of the national semiconductor lighting industrialization base, and built Dalian Light Industry Park, Shanghai Zhangjiang High-Tech Park, Nanchang Lianchuang Optoelectronics Technology Park, Xiamen Kaiyuan Science and Technology Park, and Beijing Yizhuang Economic Technology. Development Zone and six industrial bases in Shenzhen Guangming High-tech Zone. There are more than 600 LED enterprises in China, and the enterprises are mainly concentrated in the downstream packaging and application fields. There are more than 10 enterprises engaged in LED upstream epitaxial wafers and midstream chips.
Figure 7 China LED growth trend forecast
The overall technical strength of China's LED industry is not strong, and it is in its infancy. The scale of the enterprise is generally biased, but the LED industry has already attracted the attention of the state. The National Medium- and Long-Term Science and Technology Development Plan outlines semiconductor lighting products as “ "Key areas and their priority topics", "focus on research on high-efficiency, energy-saving, long-life semiconductor lighting products." The National Development and Reform Commission initiated the ten key energy-saving projects and proposed to save energy of 240 million tons of standard coal during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. Green lighting is an important aspect. In the field of lighting, China is the world's largest producer and the second largest exporter of lighting appliances. The semiconductor lighting industry has a strong industrial base. Therefore, China's LED will face tremendous development opportunities in the future.
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