Signs of warming up is obvious when LED lighting is time or a dream?

With the 2012 financial report and the first quarter of 2013 reports, the financial report shows that the listed companies in 2012 and the first quarter of this year are all caught in the increase in revenue.

However, due to the obvious trend of demand and policy recovery, the market is once again full of enthusiasm for the LED sector. "LED lighting, time is still a dream?" This is a common doubt in the market.

Civilian prices stimulate demand

According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), the 25 key listed IP companies listed in the institute had a total operating income of 48.409 billion yuan in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The total net profit was 3.933 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year. . In the first quarter of this year, the total revenue of these 25 key listed companies was 9.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the total net profit was 719 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year.

However, the LED industry is showing signs of recovery. It is understood that the local governments have recently confirmed the LED lighting promotion program. It is estimated that the installed capacity of LED street lamps in Guangdong will increase by nearly 4 times to 1.1 million baht in 2013, and Shenzhen plans to increase the amount of transformation by more than 10 times this year to more than 200,000 baht. At the same time, Jiangxi issued the "12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction", and plans to promote more than 100,000 LED outdoor lighting products and 3 million indoor lighting; Fujian outdoor lighting promotion rules will also be introduced recently.

"According to past experience, the local government's LED lighting business volume is generally taken over by powerful listed companies, which also enhances the profitability of related companies." A Shanghai researcher told reporters. More importantly, in the eyes of market participants, the price of LED lighting products is no longer high, and it directly stimulates the surge in demand.

A researcher's investigation was informed that NVC lighting may launch the first round of price wars around June this year, and other major manufacturers such as Sunshine Lighting (600261) are likely to follow up. The leading enterprises have made the "price butcher knife". The researcher expects the price of LED lighting products to fall by 30%-40% in the second half of the year. This also means that, with 18W LED tube as an example (equivalent to 30W T8 energy-saving lamp), the domestic mainstream channel retail price is expected to drop from 70 yuan to 80 yuan / only to 40-50 yuan / only, while 30W brand energy saving The price of the lamp is 20 yuan -30 yuan / only, that is, the price of the LED lamp in the second half has entered the price range of 2 times of energy-saving lamps, which is what the industry calls "sweet spot". Under the price of such a light source, the demand for new equipment and replacement in the market is expected to increase rapidly.

The researcher reminded that from June onwards, the terminal price and demand changes of LED lighting products can be closely observed. It is expected that the domestic LED lighting market will start in the third quarter of this year.

The sequela of the letter of approval

The aforementioned researchers stressed that the current LED lighting market penetration rate is less than 3%, even if the demand for price stimulation doubles, the scale is not large.

It is worth mentioning that Veeco, the global equipment manufacturer of MOCVD (required for LED epitaxial wafer production), has released news recently. Veeco recently saw the first rush from the Chinese market in the past two years, indicating that the Chinese chip factory has restarted the MOCVD machine program. . This makes the practitioners quite nervous. They think that the capital expenditure situation of Chinese companies this year does not see the phenomenon of restarting large-scale expansion of production capacity, but the expansion of production capacity of Chinese enterprises will affect the supply and demand of the overall LED industry. Once the Chinese company restarts its production expansion, it will once again cast a variable for the LED industry's temperature recovery.

In addition, the aftermath of the LED industry still leaves many investment institutions in jeopardy. Since the second half of last year, many LED-related listed companies such as Weiwei (300317), Nanda Optoelectronics (300346), Foshan Lighting (000541), Sanan Optoelectronics (600703), and Qinshang Optoelectronics (002638) have been exposed to information violations. And was punished by the Securities and Futures Commission. The market has responded strongly, and the share prices of related companies have been greatly affected by this, and the overall LED sector has not performed well.

Some investors said, "Many of these listed companies that have been questioned have not yet fully emerged from the negative, and even face huge compensation from rights defenders. Even if the industry outlook is up, beware of the black swan coming again."

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