Supply and demand tend to balance the panel industry winter to spring

The global large-size panel supply increase was limited in 2015: According to the Display Search research report, the large-size panel supply in 2015 is expected to be 178 million square meters, which is only 2.88% higher than that in 2014, compared with 9.05% per year in 11-13 years. With the growth rate, the supply growth rate dropped significantly. The increase in the supply of large-size panels for 15 years is limited due to three reasons: (1) The reduction in LCD capital expenditure. It is expected that the capital expenditure in 2015 will be reduced by 33.89% compared to 2014, and the capital expenditure will decline significantly; (2) Cutting-edge small and medium-sized generations The proportion of panel size has been increased. Currently, about 20% of the 6th generation lines are used to cut small and medium-sized panels. It is expected that this proportion will gradually increase to 24% in 2015, which will reduce the supply of large-size panels to a certain extent; (3) Japan and South Korea Taiwan and Taiwan accelerated the upgrading of technology, but the new technology is complicated and the yield rate is low, and the capacity of the new production line after the transformation is reduced.

Demand for large-size push panels is booming: With the trend of large screens for consumer electronics such as TVs, mobile phones and tablets, the demand for large-size panel markets continues to rise. It is expected that the total demand for large-size panels in 2014 will reach 153 million square meters. It increased by 9.74% from 2013. DisplaySearch's research report expects TV consumer demand will increase by 4.31% in 2015, and the demand for large-screen TVs will also exceed 50%. The TV screen size will increase to 41.54 inches. The demand for large-screen TVs will drive the demand for large-size panels. . According to the estimate of DIGITIMES Research, the average TV panel size in 2015 is expected to increase by 1.2吋 to 40.5吋 per year, which will increase the overall area of ​​large-size TFT LCDs by 8.2%. Larger displays, tablets, and mobile phones will also boost the demand for panels.

In 2015, the balance between supply and demand in the panel industry opened the profitability space for the industry: the panel industry is a cyclical industry with heavy assets, and the oversupply ratio is generally around 10%, indicating that the panel industry is in a balance between supply and demand. According to the Display Search report, oversupply of the panel industry was above 15% for the four years between 2010 and 2013. The oversupply ratio reached a peak of 29.15% in 2011, and supply and demand relations gradually improved in the following years. In 2014, the oversupply ratio was 12.81%, and the relationship between supply and demand improved markedly. At the same time, it is expected that the ratio of oversupply in 2015 and 2016 will be 12.94% and 12.90%, respectively, and the supply-demand relationship will tend to be balanced. At the same time, benefiting from the continuous recovery of panel prices, the cash costs will gradually decline, and the profitability of panel companies will be further opened in the near future.