The "bullet" of the Sino-US trade war has already flown for a while.
With the increasing trend of the twists and turns, people's information symmetry is also constantly improving. Many people's understanding of the trade war has penetrated from the initial US-China trade deficit and the suppression of China's rise to the plight of the United States itself.
For example, the current decline in US manufacturing.
Although in the global value chain division of labor system, with the control of high-tech and intellectual property, the United States is still indisputably in the head position, when a large number of production and processing links are transferred to lower labor costs. When overseas, employment and people's livelihood in the United States will inevitably be seriously affected. "The world is striving to produce goods that the dollar can buy, and the United States is responsible for producing dollars." Even if it is better, it will not cover up the expectation of the American people to return to manufacturing. Based on this, if Trump's "revitalization of manufacturing" commitment, sanctions against China's high-tech fields, and "Made in China 2025" are connected in series, you will naturally take a deeper understanding of the trade war.
Jumping out of the scope of the trade war, if we only focus on manufacturing, we will find that not only the United States, but Japan is also facing serious difficulties.
After the end of World War II, Japanese manufacturing quickly recovered and emerged from the ruins of war. Since then, since the 1980s, "Made in Japan" has long been known worldwide for its superior product performance and reliable product quality, and has been enthusiastically sought after by consumers around the world, saying that "Made in Japan is equivalent to quality." There are hardly too many people to object.
Wu Xiaobo vividly depicts in the article "To buy a toilet cover in Japan":
However, in recent years, the Japanese manufacturing industry has experienced frequent accidents. From the fraudulent scandal to the retreat of business, it is a manifestation of the dilemma that Japan’s current aura has once faded from the heights of the world. This situation can not help but embarrassing and emotional.
Then, in the process of manufacturing development, what did Japan do right and what was wrong?
With such questions, this article will make a detailed review and reflection on the rise and fall of Japanese manufacturing. In the special period at the moment, I believe that the various countries experienced by this country separated from China will bring us good inspiration.
I. Manufacturing in Japan is a history of technological innovation. The Japanese manufacturing industry has always been known for its advanced and reliable science and technology and tireless innovation. In this case, we may wish to interpret the rise of Japanese manufacturing from the perspective of technological innovation.
(1) The first stage: the “cottage†process before the 1980s After the end of the Second World War, Japan, as a defeated country, not only suffered from economic depression, but also suffered a catastrophe in the manufacturing industry. According to the data, in 1946, Japan’s manufacturing capacity was less than 40% of the highest level before the war (average level from 1934 to 1936), and 30% to 60% of industrial equipment was destroyed. At the same time, the output of major manufacturing products plummeted. Almost all fell below 50% of the pre-war peak period. For example, the textile industry in 1945 was 33% of the highest level before the war, sulfur production capacity was 42%, papermaking capacity was 46%, steel volume was 15%, oil and The inventory of petroleum products is only 10% of 1941...
Japanese economist Aizawa has used the phrase "is simply a man-made desert" in his book "Hundred Years of Japanese Industry" to describe Japan's post-war economy. "One side is the worthless war production equipment wreck." The other side is the people who don’t cover their bodies and eat their stomachs.
In order to get out of economic difficulties as soon as possible, Japan is determined to take the United States as an example and make full use of its "post-development advantage" to introduce advanced technologies and ideas that absorb American manufacturing; specific to products, whether it is computers, daily consumer goods or automobiles, communications. In other fields, they are all step by step, without exception. The direct result is that a large number of “cottage†goods have begun to emerge in Japan, covering almost all industries.
If you mention "Made in Japan" at that time, I believe that people's first reaction must be "fake and shoddy", which can be seen from the style of the goods:
However, this simple and rude copy did not last long. After falling into the black history of “cottageâ€, the Japanese began to change their minds. They not only learned from books, but also bought competitors’ products for dismantling, thoroughly researching each component, and absorbing its design ideas. . Not only that, but Japanese technicians also tackled the mechanical devices that make products.
This model was crowned by the Japanese as a name that is quite visual of the "industrial party" - "reverse engineering."
Under the influence of “reverse engineeringâ€, Japan bid farewell to the high-cost, low-efficiency production mode of the 1940s and 1950s, and actively promoted the upgrading of facilities in the field of heavy chemical industry by vigorously introducing advanced technologies, while in the fields of electricity, steel and maritime transportation. Advanced technology imitation has also become the mainstream of development at the time. As a result, Japan has achieved a gradual leap from large-scale production, automation technology introduction, machinery automation to high-tech, large-scale production system, and has effectively promoted the recovery and development of the national economy. This also laid a solid foundation for the next phase of technological innovation model change.
In the 1980s, fierce international competition and trade frictions made the Japanese authorities realize that relying solely on the "technical introduction" model could not promote the sustainable development of the Japanese economy, and must cultivate their own scientific and technological innovation capabilities in order to remain undefeated in international competition. status.
Therefore, based on the changes in the international and domestic economic situation, the Japanese government re-adjusted the country's science and technology development strategy and put forward the strategic slogan of “science and technology to establish a countryâ€. The sign is that in 1980, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry issued the “Commercial Industry Policy in the 1980sâ€. Outlook document. In October of the same year, the "Science and Technology White Paper" published by the Japan Science and Technology Agency once again clearly put forward the strategy of "establishing the country through science and technology."
During this period, Japan began to tilt its development focus to knowledge-intensive industries, such as the atomic energy industry, the electronic information industry, the computer industry and the aircraft manufacturing industry, which became the main transportation sources for capital and intellectual resources. At the same time, Japan also focuses on strengthening the uncommercial products of key laboratories and seeking industrial intensive development. With the in-depth implementation of the strategy of “establishing the country through science and technologyâ€, Japan’s independent research and development capabilities of high-tech industries have been further enhanced.
The bubble economy in the late 1980s hit Japan. Since then, the Japanese economy has been lingering in the trough for a long time, but the international technological competition has not stopped because of the Great Depression of the Japanese economy, but it has become increasingly fierce.
The double pressure of internal and external troubles has brought tremendous pressure on Japan. In order to revitalize the economy and catch up with the pace of the new era of "knowledge economy", and occupy an advantage in the international competition in the 21st century, the Japanese government has further enriched the connotation of the "science and technology to establish the country" strategy, and put forward a new slogan of "scientific and technological innovation to establish a country". Emphasize that Japan should thoroughly worship the "era of imitation and improvement." Then it took a series of measures to implement it.
In the meantime, Japan has made important breakthroughs in the number of scientific and technological research and development personnel, the number of papers published, and the number of patent applications, and the highly sophisticated fields such as nanotechnology, biomedicine, and electronic information have been greatly developed. So far, Japan has leapt to the ranks of the few technologically advanced countries in the world.
In summary, the development process of Japanese manufacturing industry is actually a history of technological innovation, the transformation and selection of innovation models at different stages, and directed the rise of this stagnation.
The Japanese manufacturing industry in the mid-day period has once created a glorious history. According to statistics, 90% of the world's digital cameras are made in Japan, and Japan holds 37% of global semiconductor production equipment and 66% of semiconductor raw materials. The following set of transcripts made in Japan will also be awe-inspiring:
In addition, in the list of the world's top 50 companies, people will find the names of internationally renowned leading companies such as Mitsubishi, Toyota, Panasonic, Hitachi, Sony, Honda, Nissan, and Toshiba, all of which belong to the manufacturing sector.
Strong Japanese manufacturing, it’s not good to be dissatisfied.
However, "there is a great decline, no extreme Thai come" seems to be a natural law, no matter how strong the Japanese manufacturing can not escape. Regardless of the consecutive years of losses of Toshiba, Matsushita, and Sony Financial Report, the following three heavy exposures are enough to incite the position of Japanese manufacturing in people's minds:
1. Mitsubishi's fuel consumption fraud event Since 1991, Mitsubishi Corporation has been using the illegal experimental methods different from laws and regulations to calculate fuel efficiency data. In addition, in order to achieve fuel efficiency targets for the four models produced in 2013, the data is also The tampering involved a total of 625,000 cars. To this end, Mitsubishi has directly suffered a series of serious consequences, including huge fines, a collapse in the market value of more than 50% of the stock price, Nissan's acquisition of Mitsubishi shares, and the resignation of the president.
2. Takata's airbag incident As one of the world's three major airbag suppliers and one of Japan's largest auto parts factories, Takada Corporation has customers in many of the world's car manufacturers including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Ford and GM. However, Takata's airbags are not safe, and their hidden dangers have not only been concealed, but also have been falsified on many safety data. As a result, Takata's airbag failure has caused 17 deaths and more than 180 injuries worldwide. The total cost of the defective car and the amount of compensation recovered are even higher. In the end, Takada had to end in bankruptcy, which is known as the largest bankruptcy case in the history of Japanese manufacturing.
3. Kobe Steel Data Fraud Incident In October 2018, Kobelco was expelled from its three factories and one subsidiary company to tamper with the technical data of some products, to shoddy the customer's fraudulent behavior, and the counterfeit products flowed into domestic and foreign enterprises. The number has reached as many as 500, and some violations can even be traced back to ten years ago. A stone has stirred up thousands of waves, many Japanese auto companies and H2A rockets, Mitsubishi regional passenger planes, some Shinkansen trains, and even Japanese-made high-speed trains in the UK, including GM, Ford, Boeing, Rolls-Royce and many other cross-borders. The giants have been frustrated. This scandal is "a leak of the day made in Japan."
Not only the above three, quality problems continue, the violations, fraud, scams, false reports frequently appeared in Toyota, Sharp, Toshiba and other giants. In addition, the retreat of Nikon and Olympus has made the brand image of Japanese companies not fall, and another wave has fallen.
In the field of new industries, the fall of Japan is also an indisputable fact.
Taking artificial intelligence as an example, at the end of 2017, Honda and China Shangtang Technology signed a five-year agreement to develop autopilot AI technology. It should be noted that Honda has a long history of 70 years, and Shangtang Technology has just been established in 2014, which is still in the entrepreneurial stage. The disparity in qualifications reflects the lag of Japan in the field of artificial intelligence, and there is not even a decent AI company in Japan. In contrast, China has already led more than one position.
Taking the Internet as an example, the only "challenge" of Yahoo!, the only giant in Japan that can take it, is well known, and the Internet giants in China have long gone without repeating it.
Brilliant, but exhausted.
The ups and downs of Japanese manufacturing are worthwhile for people to stop and think hard.
Third, the winner of the rise of Japanese manufacturing é” Return to the first of the first two questions: Made in Japan, what is right?
In my opinion, at least the following three key factors have injected strong momentum into the rise of Japanese manufacturing.
First, the Japanese are eager for innovation.
Here, it is necessary to define the meaning of "innovation" first. The so-called innovation was first proposed by the famous American economist Schumpeter, that is, "recombination of factors of production." Specifically, it is to introduce a "new combination" of production factors and production conditions that has not been introduced into the production system. The purpose is naturally to obtain potential profits as much as possible; and the development of the entire national economy is precisely A steady stream of innovation is driving.
In Schumpeter's view, innovation includes five situations, namely product innovation, technology innovation, market innovation, resource allocation innovation and organizational innovation, as shown in the following table:
Clarify the connotation of innovation, and then look back at Japan to make. As mentioned above, the Japanese manufacturing industry experienced a long period of “cottage†process, but if we dig deeper, we will find that everything that Japan has done is mainly based on imitation, but it is also considered as a kind of An alternative "innovation." For example, the so-called "reverse engineering", the deconstruction, research and improvement of New Products, and the production of new products, all contain a lot of product innovation, technological innovation and market innovation (see Figure 1).
What is even more commendable is that Japanese manufacturing companies are not satisfied with this simple “cottage†when they enjoy the dividends brought by imitation. The enthusiasm for innovation makes them try to absorb American creativity as much as possible. Improve the quality and function of imitations, or integrate your own innovations into the “cottageâ€. It is this motivation that not only allowed the Japanese economy to go through a long period of downturn, but also greatly improved the level of soft power of the entire country.
Later, Japan was more aware of the importance of improving its technological innovation capabilities, and continued to maintain its tireless pursuit and understanding of science and technology. Enterprises have spared no effort in research and development of science and technology.
According to the data, Japan's R&D investment is second only to the United States, and it is far ahead of the countries behind it. Japan's R&D investment in GDP and the proportion of science and technology workers in the country's total population are among the highest in the world. Over time, the quantitative change has reached a qualitative change. Japan has completed the magnificent transformation from the innovative “follower†to the innovative “leader†status, and successfully transformed into an advanced and innovative country.
In a nutshell, the Japanese manufacturing industry has successfully embarked on a path from “imitation and innovation†to “independent innovationâ€.
Second, the Japanese respect the "artisan spirit."
If you want to judge the hottest words in the past two years, the "artisan spirit" will definitely have a place. In China, not only Lei Jun is a craftsman who is an enthusiast, Luo Yonghao is a craftsman with feelings, and even the government work report encourages the promotion of "artisan spirit." As everyone knows, the Japanese manufacturing industry has already implemented the "artisan spirit" to the extreme and thorough.
"Artisan spirit" refers specifically to the craftsman's ultimate attitude to the pursuit of perfection and pursuit of a more perfect spirit. In Japan, the “artisan spirit†can be traced back to the Edo period. At that time, the craftsmen regarded their products as their own personality and reputation. They did not use utilitarianism, not to be honored and dissatisfied with wealth, and insisted on their work. The challenge of difficulty gradually evolved into the value orientation advocated by ordinary people.
In the modern manufacturing industry in Japan, the “artisan spirit†has been extended and carried forward. In the process of product manufacturing, employees have always demanded themselves with high standards; on this basis, they will make endless improvements and improvements in product technology to ensure the continuous improvement of product quality.
In addition, Japanese workers are generally extremely dedicated to their work. They regard their company as a second home and serve them with 100% enthusiasm for a long time to do their best to achieve good results. It is this kind of meticulous, persevering and persevering spirit that makes Japan's various Home Appliances, cars, buildings, etc. from traditional crafts to modern manufacturing. The production is quite exquisite, the kungfu is delicate, the details are extremely detailed, and the failure rate is extremely low. Various "conscience products" and "integrity products" can be said to be universally known and enjoyable, and Japan itself is very proud.
Third, the Japanese government is creating a good environment.
Summarized in four sentences, respectively:
It is no exaggeration to call these "winning ways" for the rise of Japanese manufacturing.
Going back to the second of the first two questions: Made in Japan, what did you do wrong?
It is undeniable that the decline of Japanese manufacturing is subject to many external factors, including the accelerated appreciation of the yen, the downward trend of the world economy, and changes in market trends. However, external factors are never the determining factor. They are just an excuse for finding their own losses. It is always the internal cause that plays a decisive role.
Perhaps, "the extremes must be reversed" is the best answer to this question - precisely because of the "paranoid" of technological innovation and craftsmanship, leading to frequent manufacturing accidents in Japan, problems continue.
We may wish to discuss them separately.
First, the excessive pursuit of technological innovation has caused Japanese manufacturing to fall into the “innovation trapâ€.
In Schumpeter's view, technological innovation is a kind of “creative destructionâ€. On the one hand, new technologies completely or partially replace old technologies and create new products, markets or industries, thus promoting great progress in economy, technology and society. On the other hand, the decline of old technology has made most of the equipment, technical knowledge and skills of existing enterprises obsolete, thus undermining the competitive advantages of the original enterprises and undermining the original structure of the market.
The “innovation trap†is the result of the replacement of this new and old technology (see Figure 2). Specifically, for a company, it is not easy to move from the original technology track to the new technology track; the more the enterprise innovates on its original technical expertise, the more it will go on the original technology track. Far away; because of this, companies will be more stagnate into the new technology track, and thus more and more subject to the limits of the old technology.
At this time, once the new technology track becomes the market leader, the company has to face various problems, even the crisis that has been eliminated by the market.
For those Japanese manufacturing giants who are in trouble, due to their prominent position, they are more likely to embark on the path of “continuous innovationâ€, that is, based on the original products, some of them adopt new technologies to make new products suitable for new purposes. The replacement of new products required, or the improvement of the performance, specifications, styles and varieties of the original products. This makes them drift away from the old technology track, but they don't know how difficult it is to bridge the gap between old and new technologies.
Nowadays, in the increasingly competitive market, various new technologies and new formats continue to emerge. When the technology track of Japanese manufacturing giants is no longer dominated by the industry, they will not be able to adapt to changes in market demand in time, and inadvertently fall into the "innovation trap" and become difficult to extricate themselves.
Tang Shanglong, a former teacher of Kyoto University and a professor at Tohoku University in Japan, reviewed the decades of honor and disgrace of Japanese IT manufacturing in his book Lost Manufacturing: The Failure of Japanese Manufacturing. History, in his own perspective of "semiconductor technology life", summed up the four lessons of Japanese manufacturing, two of which point to the "innovation trap":
Clayton Christensen, a professor at the American Business School, pointed out sharply in the book The Innovator's Dilemma:
Second, the paranoia of technological innovation has made Japanese manufacturing gradually out of touch with the market.
As a result, the technology produced in Japan will reduce the cost performance of products. In order to increase the performance of products by 1%, they often do not hesitate to increase the cost of investment by 30%. Over time, the cost of manufacturing in Japan is sharply increased, and the international competitiveness is lost in price.
Second, the demand for technological innovation often threatens the eyes of Japanese manufacturing decision-makers, and the style of “heavy technology and light market†has caused the products produced to be out of line with market demand. However, in the market economy environment, it is precisely the demand side of the market rather than the supply side.
Finally, the obsession with the “artisan spirit†made Japan's manufacturing lack of disruptive innovation.
In order to carry out the "artisan spirit" that has always been advocated, Japanese companies have adopted the "lifetime employment system" for a long time. Some media have pointed out that in Japan, "some people can stay in the same position for 20 years, and only do the same thing every day without asking more questions."
It is true that in history, the lifelong employment system has indeed played a positive role in the development of the Japanese national economy: on the one hand, enterprises can cultivate large-scale investment and training of employees while cultivating employees' sense of loyalty and belonging to the company. And get a reliable return; on the other hand, employees can also contribute to the company wholeheartedly, without worrying that they will not be able to eat.
However, the lifelong employment system has also brought about the aging of Japanese business jobs and the solidification of thinking; in contrast, younger employees who are more innovative and more active are often difficult to be promoted to important positions.
In addition, in the work, the pursuit of the same thing, the pursuit of the ultimate has been far from being able to adapt to today's fast-changing world and increasingly fierce competition. Compared with the gradual optimization of commodity processes, Japanese manufacturing is more likely to have disruptive innovation capabilities. Perhaps this is one of the incentives for Japanese manufacturing to fall into the "innovation trap."
Fifth, the end To be fair, it is too early to judge the Japanese manufacturing industry by simply exposing some problems. "Skinny camels are bigger than horses," not to mention the fact that Japanese manufacturing is still far from reaching the point of "slim death."
In the "Top 100 Global Innovative Enterprises" list selected by Thomson Reuters, Japan ranked first with 40 companies and 35 US companies. The National Industrial Competitiveness Report released by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) also fully confirms that Japan has always been among the best in the global manufacturing industry since the new century, especially in the core technologies of materials, components and equipment manufacturing upstream of the global industrial chain. Japan is still undisputedly leading the way in the manufacture of high value-added products. Therefore, at least for the foreseeable short-term future, Japanese manufacturing still has unparalleled competitiveness in many other countries.
Looking at the rise and fall of Japan's manufacturing industry, it is of great significance for China's manufacturing that is rising and troubled to see its winning path and source of problems. How to pursue technological innovation, carry forward the "artisan spirit", and firmly grasp the market demand, and then avoid the "innovation trap", will be the direction we should focus on in the future.
In addition, regardless of the situation in front of China's manufacturing or in the future, we should always bear in mind that external factors are never the determining factor, and the decisive factor is always the internal cause.
Home Appliances
SHENZHEN CHONDEKUAI TECHNOLOGY CO.LTD , https://www.szfourinone.com