Can the refrigerator industry get out of frost and look forward to observation

China's refrigerator industry has been tested in the winter after the weak market in 2011. Although data shows that the refrigerator industry began to enter a stage of weak recovery in the first quarter of this year, the situation in 2013 is still not clear. It remains to be seen whether the refrigerator industry can get out of the “frost period”.

Refrigerator industry bottoming out weak recovery

Recently, the National Information Center Information Resources Development Department and China National Grid jointly issued the "2012-2013 China Refrigerator Market Research Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). According to the report, in 2012, the domestic refrigerator industry witnessed a significant decline. By the end of 2013, the industry had achieved a bottoming-out rebound, a large increase in product sales, and an improvement in the industry's weakness. The refrigerator industry has entered a stage of weak recovery.

Previously, after several years of explosive growth, the refrigerator industry began to soften in the second half of 2011 and spread throughout 2012. This year was also known as the "frost period" of the refrigerator industry in the industry.

According to the statistics of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, China's total refrigerator production in 2012 was 66 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.04%, of which, the total sales volume in the domestic refrigerator market was 41 million units, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 8.89%; the export volume was 200600 units, a slight year-on-year increase. 5%.

Since 2013, the tightening of the refrigerator market has eased: According to the home appliance market monitoring system of major cities of the National Information Center, the sales volume of refrigerators in major cities in the first quarter of 2013 was approximately 34,200 units, an increase of 19.41% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase was 21.92%. Although the growth rate of the e-commerce platform was not as fast as traditional channels, it also showed a recovery growth trend.

Analysys International's monitoring data on China's mainstream B2C e-commerce platform also showed that, in the first quarter of 2013, refrigerator online sales volume increased by 3.8% from the fourth quarter of 2012, and sales increased by 3.6% from the previous quarter.

Cai Ying, deputy director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, said: “The refrigerator industry can achieve recoverable growth in the first quarter of this year, mainly because of the overall improvement in the macroeconomic level, the effect of energy-saving projects, and the promotion of corporate holiday promotions. Such factors have prompted the home appliance industry to show relatively good momentum and the overall performance of the market is in line with industry expectations."

Market competition presents new features

The report believes that the brand competition in the refrigerator industry in 2013 will show a multi-faceted, multi-regional and multi-angles.

From the data of the first quarter of this year, in the Chinese refrigerator market, domestic brands and imported brands have reached a relative balance in the sales of refrigerators. However, with the adjustment of product structure and the increase in high-end products, the advantages of imported brands in high-end products will become more apparent. This will be reflected in the increase in sales of high-end products and the proportion of possession.

The report shows that the continued growth of high-end products has played an important role in driving the sales of refrigerators. According to the data from the National Information Center, in the first quarter of 2013, sales of three-door refrigerators and above and door-to-door refrigerators continued to increase compared with 2012. Sales of refrigerators with four or more doors were significantly higher than those of refrigerators with open doors. Among them, the sales volume of refrigerators with 3 doors or more has reached 30.17%, and the proportion of refrigerators with open doors is 15.03%—the above categories accounted for more than 45% of the total sales volume of refrigerators, which is higher than that of 2012. 2.38 percentage points, occupying nearly half of the country, has become an important basis for boosting the consumption level of refrigerators in key cities. Looking at the price segment of refrigerators, sales of refrigerator products with prices above $4,500 accounted for 18.1% of the total sales, which was 1.93% higher than that of 2012.

Another important feature of refrigerator product prices is that the average price gap between domestic and foreign brands is widening: According to the report, in the first quarter of 2012, the average prices of imported and domestic refrigerator products were 4,975 yuan and 2,669 yuan, respectively, compared with the first quarter of 2013. This data was changed to 5846 yuan and 2850 yuan.

Although the price of the product did not affect the brand's dominance of market share, the depressed market environment is quietly changing the concentration of the brand. In the first quarter of this year, the top three brands remained stable in their respective positions, but their concentration has begun to decline: According to the report data, the market share of the top three brands has fallen by nearly 7%, while the refrigerator manufacturers ranking lower are strategically adjusted. Gain more shares in the competition.

Whether you can get out of the "winter" yet to be observed

Comprehensive information shows that about 10 million people will be transferred to cities each year for new urbanization, which will continue to release enormous domestic demand potential. The delivery of safe housing will also drive demand for durable consumer goods. At the same time, the tertiary and tertiary markets and the township and township markets will enter a new generation cycle in recent years. The tertiary and tertiary markets are still considered by the industry as the main driving force for the home appliance industry.

However, whether the above factors can continue to drive the recovery of the refrigerator industry in 2013, the industry is not sure about this.

Jiang Feng, chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, said that although the refrigerator market achieved good growth performance in the first quarter, it remains unclear whether the growth situation can be maintained throughout the year. “There is still a lot of uncertainty in the market, such as energy saving. The subsidy policy may be withdrawn at the end of May. In addition, it is affected by the continuous deep adjustment of the overall economy and the five policies of the new country’s real estate. It is expected that the refrigerator market will show more complicated development trends in the coming quarters of this year. For the whole year of 2013, Should be more cautious and optimistic."

Hong Shibin, deputy director of the China Household Electrical Appliances Marketing Committee, believes that the refrigerator industry has not yet come out of the “frosting period,” which is closely related to the successive launch of a series of supportive policies, consumer demand overdrafts and severe macroeconomic conditions.

In recent years, policies such as home appliances to the countryside, trade-in replacements, and energy-saving subsidies have brought about strong product demand, and the refrigerator market is rapidly rising. When the market rises, companies will actively expand their production capacity and seize market share through low-cost strategies. This led many companies to launch new production lines by raising funds or self-financing. As a result, despite the poor industrial environment and slowing market demand, the domestic refrigerator industry has shown signs of overcapacity.

Hong Shibin believes that the invisible hand of the market will eliminate some poorly-operated enterprises in the tedious refrigerator market, so the future competition will become more intense.