In China, the power generation side is basically operated by a power generation group represented by the “five major and four smallâ€. The transmission and distribution network located at the hub of the power system is mainly owned and operated by the national grid and the two power grid companies of the China Southern Power Grid. Therefore, new power equipment is added each year. Purchases are also mainly done by these companies, and the size of the equipment market is basically determined by the amount of electricity investment.
Since 2011, the trend of changes in China's power grid investment has basically shown a steady increase. The "Analysis Report on Market Demand and Investment of Electric Power Equipment Industry" released by the Industry Research Institute of Forward-looking Industry points out that from 2015 to 2020, the investment in the new distribution and transformation of the national distribution network will not be less than 2 trillion yuan, of which the amount of investment during the "Thirteenth Five-year Plan" period is not Less than 1.7 trillion yuan, in addition, the recent "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" clearly stated that the national grid investment during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period should not be lower than 3.34 trillion yuan. Thanks to the increase in total investment in distribution networks, the national grid investment in 2016 reached 542.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%, a record high in recent years.
2007-2016 China's power grid project investment
Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute
After more than a decade of large-scale power grid construction, the reliability and intelligence of China's transmission grid have reached world-class levels. It can be foreseen that after the transformation of the distribution network with a total value of RMB 2 trillion during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the investment growth rate of China's transmission and distribution network will inevitably slow down and may even stagnate and decline.
In recent years, the growth rate of electricity consumption in China's society has remained at a low level. In 2016, due to economic recovery, the following year, and higher summer temperatures, the growth rate of electricity consumption has rebounded. However, in the new normal economy, electricity consumption is expected to be used in the future. The growth rate will remain low. At the same time, the average utilization hours of China’s power generation equipment has been declining since 2011, indicating the current status of China’s electricity supply and demand surplus.
Analysis of Electricity Consumption in China
Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute
In terms of power grid investment, under the premise of slowing power demand growth, the high growth rate of investment in the first two years was mainly supported by UHV and rural power grid investment. In 2015 and 2016, 6 and 4 UHVs were started respectively. As the major UHV lines were gradually put into operation, the State Grid’s “eight-to-eight-eight-plus-transmission†operation and the “one-transit and three-straight†condition under construction had already taken shape, with new approvals. The number of projects has dropped sharply, and in the future the UHV has reduced the growth of grid investment growth.
At the same time, State Grid Corporation plans to invest 522.2 billion yuan during the “13th Five-Year Plan†period for the new round of rural power grid upgrading and upgrading projects. In 2016-2017, 78,000 natural villages will be involved and a new round of rural power grid reconstruction for 156 million people will be completed in 2017. 9 The month is basically completed. Under the support of the rural power grid transformation, the overall investment in the power grid will remain relatively stable in the future.
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