Does Shenzhou Computer go public or repeat the Han Dynasty?

On July 31, Shenzhou Computer was first approved by the GEM Issuing Review Committee. However, although the Shenzhou Computer's impact on the GEM was successful, the media have previously questioned the Shenzhou Computer's apparent “beautification report”.

Shenzhou Computer is about to land

According to the Shenzhou Computer IPO documents, Shenzhou Computer is planning to issue 82 million shares this year, and the total issued capital will be 820 million shares. The proceeds from this listing will be used for the 1.499 billion yuan Kunshan laptop R&D production base construction project and its main business. Related working capital projects. Qu Jingdong, an IT industry veteran, said through Weibo that “I don't know where Shenzhou Computer’s laptops will be sold. It will be the next Hanwang Technology. The review by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is surprising. Investors and investors must be careful. ”

PC is a sunset industry, recovering costs by dividend of 167 years

In the second quarter of 2012, global PC sales were 87.5 million units, a decrease of 0.1% from the same period last year. This data is slightly better in the Chinese market. According to IDC, China's overall PC market shipments will reach 80.307 million units in 2012, and the growth rate will reach 9.4% in 2011. Even with a growth rate of 9.4%, Shenzhou has to compete with giants such as Lenovo, Hewlett-Packard and Dell.

Some organizations predict that Lenovo's PC market share in China will reach 36% in 2012, and shipments will reach 29.9 million units. Followed by Acer 11%, Dell 8%, Hewlett-Packard 6%, ASUS share of about 6%. The next three brands are domestic brands: Tongfang, Haier and Shenzhou. Shenzhou Computer is in the second group in the industry, and the market ranking is behind Lenovo and other companies.

Li Yi, secretary general of the China Mobile Internet Industry Alliance, said that the global PC industry is declining, and it can even be considered a sunset industry. Shenzhou Computer and GEM's two high and six new standards are in violation. ”

In the same way, in the face of many market players, the Shenzhou computer model has obviously fallen behind. International PC giants Dell and Hewlett-Packard have clearly no longer operated PCs as their main business, and Lenovo has also proposed a PC+ plan. Chinese Taiwanese manufacturers including Acer and others have all transitioned to the mobile Internet industry. Shenzhou Computer will also raise funds at this time to expand PC production capacity, which is obviously different from the industry trend.

Li Yi even believes that if you stick to the PC business, it will be very detrimental to the future of the company. "Shenzhou computer needs to take full advantage of the advantages of the capital market to achieve business transformation," and even "abandon the PC business."

Some netizens mentioned that the initial price of Shenzhou Computer's IPO is that according to the current price-earnings ratio of 34 times that of the electronic information industry of the GEM, the issue price of the Shenzhou Computer is approximately RMB 13.9/share. The Shenzhou Computer prospectus shows that the amount of annual cash dividends of the company is in principle no less than 20% of the total profit available for distribution for the year, and the profit accumulated in cash for any three consecutive fiscal years is not less than the average annual realized for the three years 30% of the profit can be distributed. If calculated according to this dividend ratio, the investment will take 167 years to recover the cost.

Shenzhou Computer has a low gross margin and a very low margin of operating safety

In the recent three years, the gross margin of Shenzhou Computer was 15.22%, 15.81% and 15.55%. The comprehensive gross profit rate for the three years was 15.53%. However, the net sales rate of Shenzhou Computer was low, and the net sales rate for three years was only 5.29% and 5.54. % and 5.21%, three-year comprehensive sales of net profit of 5.34%, if the Shenzhou computer "three fees" (including management fees, operating expenses, financial costs) rose more than 6%, the company will face a loss situation. According to the listed company's 2011 annual report, of the nearly 2,400 companies, there were only 364 companies with reduced annual management fees for 2011, and few companies were able to maintain their main and net profit growth, and their management fees could not increase.

In 2010, Shenzhou Computer’s prepayments increased by 230% compared with 2009, 2011 increased by 198% compared to 2010, and the three-year prepayments increased by 455.88%. SINA netizen “Shixiong Viewpoint” believes that “If the procurement unpaid billing settlement cost is settled as payable, then the advance payment is due to the fact that the paid-in inventory has not been purchased and warehoused, and it is no wonder that the company's inventory turnover is so low!” Shenzhou Computer 2011 The turnover rate was 4.50 times. In 2011, the average inventory turnover rate of the PC industry was 13.87. In 2011, Lenovo Computer's inventory turnover rate was as high as 18.91.

When Shenzhou Computer applied for the IPO in 2011, its total net profit in 2009 and 2010 was 486 million yuan, while the total net cash flow from operating activities during the same period was only 240,000 yuan. There was a significant difference between the company's net profit and the net cash flow from operating activities. According to the financial data disclosed this time, the net profit in 2011 was about 297 million yuan, and the net cash flow from operating activities was 240 million yuan. For such a huge change, the explanation given by Shenzhou Computer is: In 2009, due to the expectation of economic recovery, the procurement of raw materials and other procurement efforts increased, resulting in a large increase in inventory.

Another major concern of Shenzhou Computer is that its company is a typical single-listed company, and Wu Haijun holds a total of 92.01% of the equity, which is the actual controller of Shenzhou Computer. As the main decision maker of Shenzhou Computer, Wu Haijun is absolutely holding and may exert influence on major issues of the company.