BYD's butterfly effect: a slight explosion caused a loss of 1 billion in market value

New energy vehicles have achieved BYD's reputation and become BYD's "Achilles Heel".

On June 20, Hong Kong media reported that the BYD electric taxi that just entered the Hong Kong market in May was charged on the 18th, and the charger exploded slightly. This news was quickly simplified to "the explosion of BYD's car" in the spread of media in the mainland.

Affected by the news, BYD both fell sharply on the same day. Although the company quickly issued an announcement to clarify that the slight explosion of the charger did not affect the safety of car operations, A shares still fell more than 8%, and H shares fell more than 9%.

In May last year, BYD's pure electric car e6 has been trapped in an "explosion" vortex. In the e6 explosion accident, the stock price dropped by 40%, although BYD later had an official expert investigation team to appear for its safety "platform".

In recent years, because of BYD's "new energy" label, as long as there is negative news in its electric vehicle business, regardless of size, it can always cause large fluctuations in stock prices.

However, in fact, BYD's new energy vehicle business accounts for a very small proportion of the company's overall revenue, and the sales volume is almost negligible. Almost all sales and most of the revenue comes from traditional fuel-powered vehicles. Why did BYD account for such a small electric car business, and its share price took a roller coaster ride?

A general manager of a small electric vehicle company in China told Tencent Finance that BYD's share price was hit hard because of a small accident with the charger, because BYD has always been fond of capital speculation. He believes that BYD, which has benefited from the hype of "Buffett Concept Stocks", has experienced a sharp decline, which is also a punishment for its previous capital hype.

The story of "Xinghuoliaoyuan" is staged again in BYD's capital market, and BYD's butterfly effect is intensifying.

BYD in the "Explosion"

At noon on the 18th, a BYD electric taxi went to a BYD fast charging station in Hong Kong for charging. Because the charging took two hours, the driver left the car after inserting the charger. The driver never thought that his insertion would cost BYD a billion dollars in market value in one day.

At about 2:30 in the afternoon, the No. 2 charger suddenly caught fire and experienced a slight explosion. A motorcyclist passing by happened to use a fire extinguisher in the parking lot to extinguish the fire.

After the accident, BYD responded to Tencent Finance that it was initially determined that the cause of the failure was a loose connection point between the power grid and the charging box, which caused an excessively large equivalent impedance and caused heating. BYD also said that after investigation, there are no hidden dangers in other charging facilities. This single failure will not affect the normal operation of Hong Kong's electric vehicles.

The R & D personnel who worked in a new energy vehicle connector R & D team in the mainland told Tencent Finance that at present domestic chargers for electric vehicle charging stations "are mostly provided by connector manufacturers, and some battery manufacturers are also doing it." The R & D staff Introduction, because the entire electric vehicle industry is still in its infancy, the current domestic standards in this area are more confusing, and even the interface for charging and replacing has no decent standard.

But BYD related persons then confirmed to the media that the Hong Kong flashing charger was indeed produced for BYD.

Despite claiming that it will not cause potential safety hazards to operations, BYD's overnight losses in the capital market have already occurred. The Hong Kong authorities decided that in order to ensure public safety, the operation of all chargers that charge BYD taxis has been suspended, and BYD ’s promotion in Hong Kong may have been affected as a result.

Back in the early hours of May 26, 2012, another accident caused a greater blow to BYD's stock price. A Nissan GTR sports car collided with two taxis traveling in the same direction, causing one of the taxis to catch fire and kill three people in the car on the spot. This taxi is BYD's star pure electric car e6.

For a long time, this accident covered a thick cloud over BYD. In the two-month accident investigation time, BYD's stock price fell by 40%.

On August 3 of that year, 13 expert groups organized by the four ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated at the press conference of the vehicle quality appraisal results of the “5.26” traffic accident, problem."

Although BYD responded to the outside world's doubts about the safety of its electric vehicles with the expert team's conclusion on the quality of accident vehicles, the market impact caused by the incident and the public's doubts, as well as whether there are safety problems in the future operation of electric vehicles, did not And completely eliminated.

With the foreshadowing of the last "explosion", coupled with the market's judgment on the importance of new energy vehicles in BYD, this has the butterfly effect of this slight explosion of the charger.

"In the early stage of the promotion of new industry products, any problems will be magnified because the market has doubts about it." Zhang Zhiyong, an automotive industry commentator, said that because electric vehicles are still in their infancy, any part of the entire electric vehicle industry chain Small accidents will affect the entire industry.

The source of the butterfly effect is not limited to the decline in confidence in individual brands, but also includes market concerns about new industries. However, in China, where the government uses electric vehicles as a “curve” for overtaking in Europe and the United States, almost all independent brand companies have invested heavily in research and development of electric vehicles, and they have tried every means to connect themselves to electric vehicles. Compared with these companies, BYD's stock price fluctuations are more obvious. This is because BYD is regarded by the market as the leading stock of new energy vehicles.

But the reality is that, at least for now, new energy vehicles seem to be less important to BYD.

New energy vehicles with a very small proportion

At the end of May this year, a "Tesla whirlwind" swept from the United States to the A-share market, and all the stocks in the new energy vehicle industry chain were boiling, although these companies did not directly enter Tesla's supply chain, nor did they Directly benefit from Tesla's development.

But in the capital market with Chinese characteristics, this is not important, what is important is the concept-BYD is the leader in the concept stocks of new energy vehicles. On May 29, because of Tesla's profit news, BYD reacted more "excitedly" than other concept stocks, directly blocking the daily limit.

Wang Chuanfu did not forget to seize the opportunity to strengthen BYD's new energy concept stock attributes. At the shareholder meeting on June 7, he threw out the highly spread "minutes": "As long as household consumption starts, BYD can create Teslas in minutes."

This sentence soon became a "snippet" of the auto industry and the investment community, but I have to admit that Wang Chuanfu once again strengthened the relationship between BYD and new energy vehicles to the majority of investors.

However, the actual situation is that, compared with Tesla and Fisker in the United States, BYD's share of sales and revenue in new energy vehicles is too small, and it even makes people wonder whether new energy vehicles are only a concept of BYD. ?

Data show that BYD achieved a total vehicle sales of 456,000 units last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles were 3153, including 262 electric buses K9, 1201 F3DM, and 1690 E6. ——New energy vehicle sales accounted for less than 0.7% of total sales.

In addition to the proportion of sales, the proportion of new energy vehicles revenue is also very small.

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